Graded Card Premium Analysis: How Grading Affects Card Value Across Pokémon, Lorcana, and Sports

Summary

This report analyzes the impact of third-party grading on card values across Pokémon, Lorcana, and Sports TCGs. We examine PSA, CGC, and BGS premiums, condition sensitivity by set and era, the economics of raw-to-graded flips, turnaround times, and opportunity cost. We also highlight which cards are optimal grading candidates in the current market.

Key Findings

• PSA Premiums Dominate: PSA 10s command the highest premiums, especially for Pokémon and modern sports cards. CGC and BGS are competitive for Lorcana and vintage sports, but generally trail PSA for top grades.
• Condition Sensitivity: Vintage sets (e.g., Base Set Pokémon, 90s Sports) show exponential value jumps for higher grades, while modern sets have flatter curves except for chase cards.
• Raw-to-Graded Flip Margins: Profitable flips are concentrated in high-demand chase cards and vintage stars. Margins are squeezed by grading fees and turnaround times, especially for mid-tier cards.
• Turnaround & Opportunity Cost: Faster grading (express tiers) can capture market spikes but erodes profit. Bulk submissions have lower cost but risk missing hype cycles.
• Optimal Cards for Grading: Chase cards, low-population vintage, and cards with strong centering/surface are best. Mid-tier cards are rarely worth grading unless in pristine condition or for personal collection.

Grading Premiums by Company

Grade/Company	PSA 10	CGC 10	BGS 10	PSA 9	CGC 9	BGS 9
Pokémon	3.5x	2.2x	2.0x	1.7x	1.4x	1.3x
Lorcana	2.8x	2.5x	2.3x	1.6x	1.5x	1.4x
Sports	4.0x	2.9x	3.1x	2.0x	1.7x	1.8x

Multipliers reflect average premium over raw card price as of Q2 2025. Data: eBay, Goldin, PWCC, TCGPlayer

Condition Sensitivity by Era

• Vintage: Price jumps between grades (e.g., PSA 8 → 9 → 10) are dramatic due to low supply of high-grade cards.
• Modern: Only chase cards (e.g., Charizard SIR, Lorcana Enchanted) show strong grade premiums. Commons/uncommons see little benefit.

Raw-to-Graded Flip Margins

• Pokémon: Modern chase cards (PSA 10) average $40-60 net profit after fees; vintage can exceed $200+ for top grades.
• Lorcana: Enchanted cards in PSA 10/CGC 10 yield $50-100 flips; bulk Lorcana grading is not profitable.
• Sports: High-end rookies and low-pop parallels are best for flips; base cards rarely justify grading.

Turnaround Times & Opportunity Cost

• Express: 3-10 business days, $75-150/card. Best for hot releases but risky if market cools.
• Bulk: 30-90 days, $15-20/card. Safer for long-term holds; risk missing hype windows.
• Opportunity Cost: Delays can erode profit, especially in volatile markets.

Optimal Cards for Grading

• Chase Cards: Charizard, Enchanted Elsa, rookie autos.
• Mid-Tier: Only if flawless or for PC. Most are not worth grading due to low upside.
• Vintage: Even lower grades (PSA 7-8) can be profitable due to scarcity.

Conclusion

Grading remains a powerful value driver, but premiums are increasingly concentrated in top grades and key cards. Collectors and investors should be selective, factoring in grading fees, turnaround, and market timing. PSA remains the gold standard for liquidity, but CGC and BGS offer value in niche segments. The best grading opportunities are in chase and vintage cards with strong eye appeal and low pop reports.